The Assumption Your bank deposits are safe, we were told by politicians. It's codified in some law provisions but until when does it hold? The Einlagensicherung guarantees €100,000 per depositor per bank. Above that, voluntary funds extend protection further. Above that, the state stands ready. Three layers.
The Valley of Death has a well-documented address: the gap between R&D funding and commercial revenue. The last three autopsies examined the conditions that create it. This edition moves inside it — specifically, the assumption risk that accumulates quietly while the technical curve advances and the commercial curve waits.
India rewrote a definition. Europe launched another fund. One of these will matter in 2035. Two weeks ago we examined why capital conditions have structurally shifted and will not reverse. Last week we examined why Germany’s capital went into the wrong category. This week: what happens when the instrument
Germany didn't miss a PayPal moment. It funded the one startup category where its structural advantages are worthless. Last week I wrote about structural shifts in innovation funding — why the 2021 capital environment isn't coming back and what that means for how founders should think about
AI mega-deals are pulling venture numbers upward. The deal count — the one that actually tells you whether founders like you are getting funded — quietly fell 20.6% in 2025. Innovation funding is a tale of two worlds right now. Most business plans were written for a third one that no
The Prototype Feedback Problem The Assumption The prototype works. The technical validation is done. Structured feedback sessions have taken place, notes are filed, the team has reviewed them. You are, by any reasonable measure, doing everything right. The assumption driving the next phase: usability feedback is an input to the
